24th June 2018
Here are five certainties about Brexit – though there are people who even doubt or dispute one or more of these.
One certainty is that on 29 March 2017 the UK notified the EU of its intention to leave the EU – though some say there was never a constitutionally valid “decision” to be notified.
A second certainty is that, unless something happens to change it, the UK will leave the EU on 29 March 2019, by automatic operation of law. The UK will cease to be part to, or bound by, the EU treaties.
A third certainty is that the UK will not be ready to leave the EU on that date, unless there are transition arrangements in place – though some believe the UK is up for such a “hard Brexit”.
A fourth certainty is that the EU wants the transition arrangements to be part of a withdrawal agreement, and that they maintain there cannot be, as a matter of law, transition arrangements without a withdrawal agreement.
And a fifth certainty, which no one can deny, is there is not yet a signed withdrawal agreement.
So, it must follow that there must be a withdrawal agreement signed before 29 March 2019 – unless the date of Brexit day is shifted or cancelled.
So given these five certainties, what are the range of possible foreseeable outcomes, as of now? What do you think?
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