31st January 2018
My apology for the lack of posts: I was unwell from before Christmas until a few days ago.
There is everything, and nothing, to say about Brexit.
The same hard facts are still there, and looming.
The UK will leave the EU by automatic operation of international law on 29 March 2019, unless something not now in view happens.
The UK government does not know what it wants, and there is no UK Brexit policy worth the name.
The EU27 do know what they want and, again unless something not now in view happens, that will be what the UK gets – both in terms of transition arrangements and future relationship.
There is less and less time for there to be any further referendum before 29 March 2019. Nor is there any real time left for a “Remain” reversal of the Brexit process.
Any “transition” arrangements will be for the the full acquis of EU law, and all the paraphernalia of EU obligations, but without any formal presence in any institution – this is, as somebody has said, vassal status.
And it remains (bleedingly) obvious that the Article 50 period should be extended substantially beyond 29 March 2019 to give UK more time, but this seems as politically impossible as ever.
What is changing is the steady reduction of time, and the widening awareness of UK’s inability to address the problems.
All this, and nobody knows what will happen.
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